Random Roger: Karl Popper and Dividend Growth Investing

I read a couple of good articles at Seeking Alpha that were each about the role that dividend growth investing can potentially play in the withdrawal phase that comes with retiring. I have no quibble with either article but as I have said before it is not my preference to own an entire portfolio of stocks with so many overlapping attributes. One of the articles mentions owning all mega cap dividend growers. I happen to think that is not ideal diversification but that really boils down to people's individual preferences.

The comments on both articles are perhaps more interesting. We've talked before about what reads like religious sort of devotion about how great the strategy is, how it cannot fail and also a big thread on why more advisors don't advocate for the strategy--the group seems to think it is because advisors can't get paid. There were also comments about advisors trying to promote the idea that individuals can possibly do it by themselves.

To the idea of not being able to fail; that reminds me of Karl Popper who said that all the positive outcomes in the world cannot prove something to be true but it only takes one negative outcome to disprove something.

I have no idea if dividend investing will ever have some sort of event that is not reasonably predicted (the definition of a black swan) that ends up damaging a lot of people. But the idea that I think I am reading that it can't happen is not something I would want to hang my financial hat on. I hope the folks that continually comment on all of the countless DGI articles spend some time reading content that challenges their opinion instead of confirming it. If you love some investment strategy and you only take in content from other people who also love that same strategy you are learning less than you could be.

As far as the advisor bashing, it makes for an interesting group think. First, like any profession there are plenty of people who are unethical, incompetent or both but of course there plenty who are both ethical and competent.

I have always maintained that for most people, investing on their own boils down to the time that they are willing and able to devote to the task. A big blind spot in these comment threads on this topic is that those folks are part of a very narrow slice of the population that is more than willing to spend the time, a lot of time. The comments read like they can't conceive of someone not wanting to spend a lot of time on their portfolio.

It is people who simply don't want to spend the time that are candidates to hire an advisor. Another swathe of people who might hire an advisor are people who wonder whether the older version of themselves will be able to make investment decisions as well as the 50 year old version. Our firm also has clients who manage some of their own and hire us for a portion.

One final thing I will add that I'm sure will get me flamed if this post makes it over to Seeking Alpha is a lot of the commenters display some very textbook cognitive deficits and do so repeatedly. The point is not to dump on them or imply they can't manage their own portfolio. Many of the usual suspects are clearly very smart and very successful but I think the group would be well served if some of their own tried to promote a more constructive analysis of the strategy as opposed to something like and here's another reason why dividend investing is so great!

Source: http://randomroger.blogspot.com/2013/08/karl-popper-and-dividend-growth.html

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Total War: Rome II - Hannibal vor den Toren

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Hannibal f?hrte den wohl ber?hmtesten Feldzug gegen die R?mer und ?berquerte mit seinem Heer die Alpen. Ihm ist dieser Trailer zu Rome II gewidmet.

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Source: http://www.hardwareclips.com/video/14718/Total-War-Rome-II-Hannibal-vor-den-Toren

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Make Your Home Improvement Successful With These Ideas ...

It is easy to get carried away with enthusiasm and high hopes when planning a project. But don?t let your enthusiasm overwhelm your skill level or your realistic expectations. Practicing what you?ve learned here will result in your projects being a success.

Look out for carpet sales at big carpet outlets. It can save you quite a bit of money if you can find a good deal on the cost of installation. These offers are well worth taking advantage of; depending on the details of your home, you may find that the labor that goes into installing new carpet is more expensive than the carpet itself.

Most rooms can be given new energy by updating the flooring. You can check out the do-it-yourself options at a hardware store, or you can contract with professionals to get new laminate, carpet, tile, or wood flooring put down quickly and reliably.

Are you wanting to make a simple renovation to your home? If so, then simply go to the department store and purchase paint. New paint could make your home look new and it doesn?t require a whole lot of time or money. A fresh coat of paint will also make your home more appealing to buyers if you have any interest in selling your home.

Do not feel you need to replace a door when it gets a little dirt on it. Remove them, and sand them down to the bare wood. Next, purchase whichever oil-based paint you like and use a paint roller to paint the door. Change to more modern doorknobs, too.

Accomplishing a job well done will pay off in satisfaction and in the increased value of your home. If you don?t have much home maintenance experience, make sure you are utilizing the tips provided in the above article so that you can properly finish your project.

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This entry was posted in Swimming Pool Orlando by admin. Bookmark the permalink.

Source: http://www.poolbuildersinorlando.com/make-your-home-improvement-successful-with-these-ideas/

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OHSU receives breast cancer grant

Joe Gray of OHSU?s Knight Cancer Institute will use a $225,000 grant from the Susan G. Komen Foundation to investigate novel methods of controlling and combating metastatic breast cancer.

Oregon Health & Science University will receive a $225,000 grant from the Susan G. Komen Oregon and Southwest Washington chapter for breast cancer research.

The grant goes to Joe Gray of OHSU?s Knight Cancer Institute. He will investigate novel methods of controlling and combating metastatic breast cancer.

Gray will explore how to target a tumor?s micro-environment, lessening its ability to escape treatment and how to exploit the inherent genomic instability of basal breast cancers, such as triple negative.

Komen?s investment in Oregon and Southwest Washington totals nearly $29 million, including $11.3 million for research and $17.4 million for screening, education and survivor support for women and their families.

Elizabeth Hayes covers health care for the Business Journal.

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/vertical_32/~3/AePx0WkP5Yw/ohsu-receives-breast-cancer-grant.html

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FDA links stomach bug in 2 states to Mexican farm

WASHINGTON (AP) ? The Food and Drug Administration says an outbreak of stomach illnesses in Iowa and Nebraska is linked to salad mix served at Olive Garden and Red Lobster restaurants in those states and supplied by a Mexican farm.

The outbreak of cyclospora infections has sickened more than 400 people in 16 states in all. The agency says it is working to determine whether the salad mix is the source of illnesses in the other 14 states.

"It is not yet clear whether the cases reported from other states are all part of the same outbreak," the agency said in a statement. "The investigation of increased cases of cyclosporiasis in other states continues."

Both Olive Garden and Red Lobster are owned by Orlando-based Darden Restaurants. In a statement, Darden spokesman Mike Bernstein said the FDA's announcement is "new information."

"Nothing we have seen prior to this announcement gave us any reason to be concerned about the products we've received from this supplier," Bernstein said.

The FDA said it traced illnesses from the restaurants in Nebraska and Iowa to Taylor Farms de Mexico, the Mexican branch of Salinas, Calif.-based Taylor Farms. The company, which provides produce to the food service industry, said its facility located about 180 miles north of Mexico City in San Miguel de Allende is the only one of its 12 sites to be connected to the cases.

In a statement on the company's website, Taylor Farms says the Mexican facility is "state of the art and has an exceptional food safety record." The statement said the company is working with FDA investigators who are looking at the facility and that the product is out of the food supply.

The FDA said it had audited the Mexican processing facility in 2001 and found "no notable issues." The agency said it would increase surveillance efforts for green leafy products imported from Mexico.

The most recent known illness in the two states linked to the infected salad was in Nebraska a month ago. The typical shelf life for a salad mix is up to 14 days.

There have been more recent illnesses in other states. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the most recent illness was July 23 but centers did not specify a location.

The agency said its investigation has not implicated any packaged salad sold in grocery stores.

__

Follow Mary Clare Jalonick on Twitter at http://twitter.com/mcjalonick

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/fda-links-stomach-bug-2-states-mexican-farm-213132839.html

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North Texas experiencing worst outbreak of whooping cough in a decade

by JANET ST. JAMES

WFAA

Posted on August 1, 2013 at 5:18 PM

DALLAS -- Julie Moon would do anything to protect her newborn son.

That includes getting a whooping cough shot during pregnancy, as the CDC is now recommending for every expectant mother.

"My husband and I both got it because we want to decrease the risk of passing it on to our child, which can be very serious," Moon said. "It can lead to pneumonia and potentially death. So we wanted to take that seriously."

It's especially wise, considering North Texas in the midst of a serious outbreak.

Tarrant County has already had 302 cases of pertussis this year, compared to 162 cases in 2012. Dallas County reports 114 cases so far in 2013, including the death of a three-week-old infant in June.

The numbers are the highest North Texas has seen in nearly a decade, prompting a health advisory to all Dallas County medical providers.

"We know that part of this is due to the limitations of the vaccine that is currently available," explained Dallas County Health and Human Services epidemiologist Dr. Wendy Chung.

The CDC predicts the protection provided from the pertussis vaccine may last a decade or less. Those in whom the vaccine is no longer effective can become infected and transmit the disease to others through respiratory droplets.

Pertussis, in its early stages, mimics the common cold. It is often not suspected or diagnosed until the more-severe symptoms appear. Symptoms can include fits of rapid, high-pitched coughs, vomiting, and exhaustion.

Antibiotics can shorten the amount of time a patient is contagious.

In most cases, children under one year old are most-severely affected. Infants can receive the first vaccination at two months of age, though it takes several doses to attain protection.

According to the Texas Department of State Health Services, more than half of infants younger than one year of age who get pertussis must be hospitalized.

Of those infants who are hospitalized with pertussis about:

• 1-in-5 get pneumonia (lung infection)
• 1-in-100 will have convulsions (violent, uncontrolled shaking)
• Half will have apnea (slowed or stopped breathing)
• 1-in-300 will have encephalopathy (disease of the brain)
• 1-in-100 will die

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CLICK HERE FOR MORE ON PERTUSSIS FROM THE STATE HEALTH DEPT

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"Medical City alone has seen seven cases of whooping cough here in July," said Medical City pediatrician Dr. Damien Mitchell.

That's why he's reminding children, adult caregivers, and expectant mothers to get vaccinated.

"The benefit of that is the immunity is actually passed on to baby before the baby is even born," Mitchell said, "and then obviously mom is vaccinated against the infection while she's caring for that young infant."

Her own vaccination gives Julie Moon one less thing to worry about when it comes to the health of her newborn baby boy.

E-mail jstjames@wfaa.com

Source: http://www.wfaa.com/news/health/Pertussis-Outbreak-in-North-Texas--217999581.html

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Clean water and soap 'boost growth'

31 July 2013 Last updated at 20:14 ET By Helen Briggs BBC News

Access to clean water and soap not only improves hygiene but may boost growth in young children, research suggests.

A review of global data found evidence of a small increase in height - about 0.5cm - in under-fives living in households with good sanitation.

The studies took place in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Chile, Guatemala, Pakistan, Nepal, South Africa, Kenya and Cambodia.

Poor growth affects 265m children globally with long-term health impacts.

The evidence from 14 studies involving nearly 10,000 children comes from a review of evidence known as the Cochrane review, led by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and the international charity WaterAid.

Repeated illnesses

Dr Alan Dangour, a public health nutritionist at the LSHTM who led the report, said providing clean water, sanitation and hygiene is an effective way to reduce deaths from symptoms such as diarrhoea.

Continue reading the main story

?Start Quote

It makes absolute sense that there should be a link between dirty water, diarrhoea and growth outcomes but it's interesting that it's never been shown before?

End Quote Dr Alan Dangour Report author

The analysis suggested, for the first time, that better access to these services may also have a small but important impact on the growth of young children, he said.

"What we've found by bringing together all of the evidence for the first time is that there is a suggestion that these interventions improve the growth of children and that's very important," he told BBC News.

"This is the first time really that evidence has been provided to support the provision of water sanitation and hygiene interventions to improve growth."

He said there is a clear link between a child drinking dirty water, getting diarrhoea and having poor growth, because repeated illnesses in early childhood can impair growth.

'Scourge of malnutrition'

"It makes absolute sense that there should be a link between dirty water, diarrhoea and growth outcomes but it's interesting that it's never been shown before," said Dr Dangour.

"Half a centimetre doesn't sound a lot but in our estimates that increase in growth equates to a reduction in stunting of about 15%, which is quite important."

Commenting on the research, Dr Francesco Branca, director of nutrition for health and development at the World Health Organization (WHO), said: "This review shows that a multi-pronged approach is the way to go - bringing together actions to improve food quality and safety as well as feeding and care of children, with others to prevent and treat infections and improve the home environment - to address the scourge of chronic malnutrition."

Poor height growth, or stunting, affects 165m children worldwide, increasing the risk of death and reducing productivity in adulthood, according to the WHO.

Undernutrition is a cause of 3.1m deaths annually - nearly half of all deaths in children under five.

Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-23519775#sa-ns_mchannel=rss&ns_source=PublicRSS20-sa

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Sony Picks up Profit on Yen Fall, Smartphone Sales ...

Sony Corp posted a net profit of 3.48 billion yen (35 million dollars) in the April-to-June quarter on a weaker yen and strong sales of smartphones, the company said Thursday.

It was a turnaround from a net loss of 24.64 billion yen in the same period last year.

The Japanese consumer electronics maker also booked an operating profit of 36.4 billion yen for the April-to-June period, compared with an operating loss of 6.3 billion yen a year ago, while sales were up 13 per cent to 1.71 trillion yen.

Sony raised a sales outlook for the current financial year to March 2014 to 7.9 trillion yen from 7.5 trillion yen it had estimated three months ago.

The company maintained its net profit forecast at 50 billion yen and operating profit outlook at 230 billion yen for the year.

For the previous financial year, which ended in March, Sony returned to the black for the first time in five years thanks to a weaker yen and rising share prices. The company posted a net profit of 43 billion yen for the year, a turnaround from a record annual net loss of 456.7 billion yen for fiscal 2011.

Source: http://www.hispanicbusiness.com/2013/8/1/sony_picks_up_profit_on_yen.htm

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Top 15 Free PR Ideas to Grow Your Online Business

July 31st, 2013??

You?ve got a great idea, you?ve built your killer team, and you?ve maybe even gone through the first round or two of funding. You know you?ve got something that?s going to totally rock the industry.

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Marketing your product is essential if your company is going to explode the way you know it can. Think about it. Where would Coca Cola be if they hadn?t pushed their way into our collective unconscious? They?d just be one of many soft drinks on the shelf instead of the most recognized brand in the world.

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Source: http://knowfree.net/2013/07/31/top-15-free-pr-ideas-to-grow-your-online-business-59/

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Apple says iOS 7 will patch exploit that lets rogue chargers install malware

Recently, Georgia Tech researchers discovered an unusual way to attack iOS: a third-party charger with a hidden computer can install malware when an iOS device is plugged in and unlocked. That won't be an issue for much longer, however, as Apple has confirmed that iOS 7 beta 4 and future releases contain a fix. While the company hasn't said what that solution is, Georgia Tech's Billy Lau says that the new OS can tell when it's plugged into a computer instead of a charger -- there shouldn't be any rude surprises. The dependence on an iOS 7-based fix could leave many users vulnerable until the fall, although the hardware-specific nature of the exploit means it's unlikely to be a major concern.

Filed under: Cellphones, Tablets, Mobile, Apple

Comments

Source: Reuters

Source: http://www.engadget.com/2013/08/01/apple-says-ios-7-will-patch-rogue-charger-exploit/?utm_medium=feed&utm_source=Feed_Classic&utm_campaign=Engadget

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Movie Review: Zambezia is refreshing with its uncomplicated plot ...

By Troy Ribeiro/IANS

This animated film in 2D and 3D versions from South Africa is at par with any other such from Hollywood. It is innocently and delightfully mesmerising. It is also colourful and lively with a birdy ? entertainment.

The film begins with Kai (Jeremy Suarez) a young, enthusiastic and lonely falcon living in the barren Katungu desert of Africa questioning his reclusive father, Tendai (Samuel J. Jackson), ?Is living all about surviving?? when his father was training him to be the fastest lizard grabber.

Just like Jonathan Livingston, the Seagull from Richard Bach?s novella, Kai, pushes himself to perfection and at the same time is looking for company, to live in a society.

Courtesy: Facebook

It?s by chance that Kai hears about Zambezia, the famed tree city of birds situated on the banks of Victoria Falls, from Gogo (Jennifer Lewis), the old saddle billed stork who ferries young birds and orphan eggs from elsewhere to Zambezia.

Enthralled with what he hears, Kai ventures to Zambezia against his father?s wishes because he believes that ?No friends means no Life? and he wants to live life on his terms.

Once there, he befriends, Ezee (Jamal Mixon), Zoe (Abigail Breslin) the spirited Kite, Sekhuru (Leonard Nimoy) the mentor and father figure of all Zambezians and the rest of the Zambezian civilization. He learns about the elite Hurricanes, the truth of his origins and how to be part of this community.

He integrates himself by being a part of the rescue team that protects Zambezia from the scavenging Marabous and Budzo (Jim Cummings), the oversized iguana lizard.

The plot of the film is simple and uncomplicated. Interspersed with little lessons of bonding and survival, everything used in creation of this animated world has been sourced from the natural surroundings found in the Zambezi River Valley like ? the Peregrine falcons, the Nightjars, the iguana, storks, weaver birds etc.

Written by a group of writers, the film is headed by Director Wayne Thornley. In his maiden directorial venture, he has done a commendable job. The script flows smoothly. The quirky dialogues are witty and never over the top.

There is no slapstick comedy that could entice the younger audience, but scenes like; Ezee at the massage parlour or when the birds at the salon are getting a makeover with powder shower puffs are humorous.

Visually the computer generated animated images are marvellous. The animals are perfectly anthropomorphized. The animators have painstakingly ensured that the swishing of the plumes and the facial expressions sync well with emotions.

There are plenty of ogling images with a vast array of colours that would mesmerize you. For instance, the magnificence of the imposing Victoria Falls, the location and the layout of the Zambezia city itself, the spectacular sunsets and a diverse mix of birds is something that you would treasure.

Music Director Bruce Retief?s background score is lively and foot tapping. The lyrics are unpretentious and patriotic especially the song ?A wind of change will blow across this nation.?

This film is an amalgamation of South African spirit and Hollywood subtlety. Targeted at kids between 5 to 10 years of age, parents too would find the film fascinating.

The film is refreshingly delightful.

IANS

Source: http://www.firstpost.com/bollywood/movie-review-zambezia-is-refreshing-with-its-uncomplicated-plot-1003013.html

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NASA turns 55. What's next for the space agency?

Fifty-five years ago Monday, President Eisenhower signed the Space Act, authorizing the creation of NASA. Since then, the space agency has grown from its Sputnik-shaded beginnings to studying the full scope of the heavens. What will the next 55 years bring?

By Liz Fuller-Wright,?Correspondent / July 31, 2013

Information from three telescopes was combined to create this image of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC), a small satellite galaxy of the Milky Way located about 160,000 light years from Earth. X-rays from NASA's Chandra X-ray Observatory (blue) show hot regions created by these winds and shocks, while infrared data from NASA's Spitzer Space Telescope (red) outline where the dust and cooler gas are found. The optical light from the 2.2-m Max-Planck-ESO telescope (yellow) in Chile shows where ultraviolet radiation from hot, young stars is causing gas in the nebula to glow.

Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics/Reuters

Enlarge

Fifty-six years ago, civilian pilots and military rocket scientists had little in common. And then, on October 7, 1957,?came Sputnik.

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Within a year, NASA began operations as a hastily-cobbled-together mix of of civilian aeronautics and military intercontinental ballistic missile research. Now, it's a federal agency examining the entire sweep of the sky.

From its hasty beginnings, NASA has flown 157 missions???86 still ongoing ??visiting almost every large heavenly body between the Sun and Pluto, monitoring the Earth from space, peering into the heart of our galaxy's central black hole, and looking out to distant stars and galaxies. NASA has sent 301 astronauts into space, and is currently training another nine?who will soon fly.

We have a permanent human presence in orbit and 12 men have left footprints on the Moon. NASA's satellites have orbited Mercury, Venus, Earth, the Moon, Mars, the asteroid Vesta, Jupiter, and Saturn; flown by Uranus and Neptune; and another is en route to Pluto. NASA's telescopes are listening to every corner of the universe and looking at billions of stars; they have found hundreds of planets orbiting other stars, plus countless pulsars, black holes, supernovae, and more. NASA and its sister organizations around the world are examining the secrets of the universe, from tiny grains of space dust to dark matter to unthinkably enormous galaxies.

"The 20th?century was quite an amazing time for advances in science and technology, particularly in spaceflight," says Bill Barry, NASA's chief historian. Just 55 years before NASA's creation, in 1903, the Wright brothers flew the first airplane in Kitty Hawk, N.C. And now, 55 years later, we've visited the moon, "reconnoitered the solar system ? and revolutionized our understanding of the cosmos and our place in it," he says.

"Apollo, getting to the moon, developing industries and building infrastructure, exploring our solar system, the Earth, and the larger universe ? that's a pretty good list of accomplishments for 55 years," says Dr. Barry. "It's a pretty good investment for the chunk of money we spent in the '60s plus the maintenance-level investment we've made since then."

The price of exploration

Space spending in 1957 had amounted to around $35 million ($282 million in 2013 dollars), but Sputnik fears loosened federal purse strings. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration officially began its mission October 1, 1958, after President Dwight Eisenhower signed it into law on July 29. ?In its first year, NASA's budget was about 10 times the 1957 space budget, and it grew rapidly.

Source: http://rss.csmonitor.com/~r/feeds/science/~3/T24XvrD_ox0/NASA-turns-55.-What-s-next-for-the-space-agency

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